Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.016217 0.018361 0.020700 0.023446 0.026582 0.030059 0.034211
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.013057 0.016021 0.019541 0.024043 0.029669 0.036490 0.045427
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011359 0.014702 0.018904 0.024600 0.032162 0.041915 0.055543
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009840 0.013293 0.017836 0.024290 0.033294 0.045510 0.063512
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008708 0.012204 0.016986 0.024062 0.034368 0.048982 0.071550
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007813 0.011312 0.016266 0.023867 0.035373 0.052351 0.079705
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007293 0.010881 0.016129 0.024459 0.037533 0.057563 0.091157
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006641 0.010179 0.015504 0.024218 0.038346 0.060742 0.099701
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006322 0.009946 0.015555 0.025011 0.040839 0.066782 0.113572
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005697 0.009168 0.014673 0.024197 0.040591 0.068261 0.119783
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005237 0.008611 0.014090 0.023807 0.040993 0.070836 0.128153
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004743 0.007955 0.013284 0.022953 0.040484 0.071738 0.133518
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004587 0.007866 0.013438 0.023811 0.043154 0.078680 0.151238
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004403 0.007712 0.013466 0.024448 0.045488 0.085264 0.169130
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004223 0.007549 0.013459 0.025012 0.047729 0.091884 0.187897
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003935 0.007163 0.013013 0.024697 0.048220 0.095110 0.199977
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003685 0.006827 0.012631 0.024465 0.048843 0.098649 0.213139
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003462 0.006523 0.012283 0.024266 0.049506 0.102322 0.227032
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003353 0.006430 0.012332 0.024869 0.051897 0.109891 0.250749
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003156 0.006148 0.011986 0.024623 0.052441 0.113495 0.265619
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003087 0.006115 0.012134 0.025430 0.055367 0.122705 0.295214
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002856 0.005736 0.011548 0.024602 0.054541 0.123257 0.303382
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002686 0.005470 0.011175 0.024205 0.054662 0.126020 0.317513